For years, Nigeria depended heavily on imported refined petroleum products from countries across Europe, Asia, and beyond. But once Dangote Petroleum Refinery began production, following its first crude delivery on December 12, 2023, the story was no longer only about what Nigeria could gain. It also became a story about who might lose. Using Nigeria’s 2022 refined petroleum import data as a baseline, my visualization shows that 63 countries had some level of petroleum export revenue exposure to Nigeria, meaning they could be affected if Nigeria increasingly meets domestic demand through local refining rather than imports.1
The countries that appear most exposed are the ones that earned the most from petroleum exports to Nigeria before Dangote Refinery came on stream. In the data, the top five likely impacted countries are Belgium ($6,828.84m), Netherlands ($5,606.21m), India ($2,370.50m), Norway ($1,640.14m), and the United Kingdom ($923.24m). At the other end, the least likely impacted countries among those with recorded export value are Hong Kong ($0.01m), Burundi ($0.01m), Luxembourg ($0.01m), Denmark ($0.01m), and Rwanda ($0.01m), each with only a negligible share of Nigeria’s 2022 import market.
What makes this interesting is that one refinery in Lagos could quietly reshape revenue flows across dozens of countries. Some of the biggest losers may not even be the most obvious names in global oil conversations, while others may barely notice the change at all. That is why this map is worth more than a glance. It raises a bigger question: if Nigeria truly reduces dependence on imported refined products, which countries will feel the shift first, and by how much? I would really like to hear which country on the map surprises you most.
- All datasets and code block used for this project can be found in my GitHub repository at https://github.com/dutchy313/dangote-refinery-impact-map ↩︎
